Post-Oscar thoughts

Well, my predictions were wrong. Even though I was off-base on a lot of the categories, I still didn't find the ceremony very suprising at all. Marion Cotillard was a good win, and makes me a little more likely to see La Vie En Rose, but overall, it went how I thought. I really, really wish there had been a few more wins for There Will be Blood, though -- No Country took screenplay, direction, and picture, and I was hoping TWBB would get one of those. I would pay obscene amounts of money to see the inevitable hissy fit Paul Thomas Anderson threw after the awards, but at least it would have been well-deserved. Overall: meh (although it was funnier than most years).

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Happy Oscar Day!

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Official Oscar predictions

So, since I know you've been waiting for it, here are my official picks for tomorrow's awards. Best Picture No Country For Old Men (although, as I have discussed with several people, I wouldn't be suprised if any of these movies won, really.) Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood -- Clearly the winner. The performance of a lifetime. Best Actress Julie Christie, Away From Her -- A really tight race, I could see either Ellen Page or Marion Cotillard winning as well, but I really think it'll go to Christie for her gentle, exquisite performance in Sarah Polley's wonderful film. Best Supporting Actor Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men -- Clearly. Best Supporting Actress Ruby Dee, American Gangster -- A surprise nominee, but I think she'll win because of how AG got the shaft in every other category, especially best actor. Best Director Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men -- I would love, LOVE to see PT Anderson or even Julien Schnabel win this one, but I don't see it happening. Best Original Screenplay Diablo Cody, Juno -- Clearly the winner, although I will cringe when they have to read that stupid fucking pseudonym on the podium. Best Adapted Screenplay PT Anderson, There Will Be Blood -- I think the Coens might win this, but I'm guessing Anderson because TWBB won't win picture or director and PT has to get something. So there you have it! I may or may not liveblog the damn thing, but probably not, because the ceremony is always interminably boring.

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2008 Oscar nominations

As you've inevitably heard by now, the Oscar nominations were announced this morning. A few not-surprise surprises, mostly they're either boring or just kind of silly. My thoughts: Best Picture: Obviously the not-surprise surprise is Juno, which is most certainly this year's Little Miss Sunshine in case we start to take ourselves too seriously with the other nominees. My personal feelings aside, if it does win over two of the best movies in years (There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men), I might faint. My pick: There Will Be Blood Likely winner: Atonement (to make up for the lack of Joe Wright nomination) Best Actor: Does Daniel-Day Lewis have this thing wrapped up? I hope so. But Tommy Lee Jones, not for No Country but In the Valley of Elah?! Jesus, Academy voters have a Haggis fetish. My pick and likely winner: Daniel Day-Lewis Best Actress: I really, really think Julie Christie should win this business. Her performance in Away from Her was so powerful and painful and true that, being the grandaughter of an Alzheimer's patient, I almost couldn't watch. As much as Day-Lewis's performance is a loud, brash tour-de-force, this is a quiet, painful one. I'm predicting Christie (My pick and likely winner), but I wouldn't be shocked at an Ellen Page upset (making her, in the words of a Defamer commenter, "this year's Marisa Tomei"). Best Supporting Actor: Again, an actor (Javier Bardem) with a rightful near-lock on this award -- he's my pick and likely winner. But another upset could happen; I could see Casey Affleck getting it, both for his nominated work in The Assassination of Jesse James... and for the almost criminally neglected (so I've heard) Gone Baby Gone. Best Supporting Actress: Let's just make it another one where my pick and likely winner are the same: Cate Blanchett for I'm Not There. I'm so mad that Haynes wasn't even nominated in original screenplay, at least. There was so much great writing and imagination in that movie, most of which came from the script. Best Director: Jason Reitman?! Again, personal feelings aside, everyone's said that the movie's power is in its script and performances, not direction. Another feel-good pick, I suppose. I didn't like Thank You For Smoking (the few minutes I saw), either, so I'm not thrilled by this pick. My pick: Paul Thomas Anderson, likely winner: It's a toss-up in my mind between the Coens and Julian Schnabel. I'll narrow it down closer to awards time. Best Original Screenplay: No real surprises here, except maybe Brad Bird (Ratatouille). My pick: I haven't seen any of them, so I can't really choose. I am interested in The Savages, though. Likely winner: Diablo Cody, Juno. Best Adapted Screenplay: Again, no real surprises, except Sarah Polley, who I am ecstatic for. My pick: Paul Thomas Anderson, likely winner: the Coens. And those are the major categories! It makes me want to vomit that Norbit was nominated, even if only for makeup, and that three songs from Enchanted were nominated and not one from Walk Hard (yes, the movie is a comedy, but those are seriously good songs). And even though I have strong feelings toward Diablo Cody/Juno, it truly warms my heart that four of the ten nominated screenwriters are women. We're getting somewhere! But all in all, Radar is right: boring.

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